Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs
 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+160).
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (65.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.5 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
  • Patrick Mahomes checks in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 77th percentile.
  • Patrick Mahomes has been among the top touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 1.91 per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

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    FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
  • At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
  • This year, the fierce Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered a meager 1.09 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-best rate in the league.
  • The Packers cornerbacks project as the 9th-best group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.

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