Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs
 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 249.5 (-143/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 258.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 249.5 @ +112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.5 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
  • Patrick Mahomes checks in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 77th percentile.

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    FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
  • At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
  • Patrick Mahomes's 277.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents an impressive reduction in his throwing talent over last season's 325.0 mark.
  • Patrick Mahomes's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, totaling just 7.42 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 figure last season.
  • This year, the tough Packers defense has given up a mere 221.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 9th-best in the league.
  • The Packers cornerbacks project as the 9th-best group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.

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