Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Carries
Player Prop Week 13

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs
 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
  • The model projects Patrick Mahomes to earn 4.1 carries in this contest, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
  • Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.6% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among QBs.
  • When talking about opening holes for runners (and the ramifications it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in football last year.
  • As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Green Bay's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

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    FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to run on 38.0% of their plays: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.

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